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《死在火星上》

对火星轨道变化问题的最后解释
easeoftheSun.WhenthemassoftheSunisclosetoitspresentvalue,thejovianplanetsremainstableover1010yr,orperhapslonger.Duncan&Lissaueralsoperformedfoursimilarexperimentsontheorbitalmotionofsevenplanets(VenustoNeptune),whichcoveraspanof~109yr.Theirexperimentsonthesevenplanetsarenotyetcomprehensive,butitseemsthattheterrestrialplanetsalsoremainstableduringtheintegrationperiod,maintainingalmostregularoscillations.

    Ontheotherhand,inhisaccuratesemi-analyticalsecularperturbationtheory(Laskar1988),Laskarfindsthatlargeandirregularvariationscanappearintheeccentricitiesandinclinationsoftheterrestrialplanets,especiallyofMercuryandMarsonatime-scaleofseveral109yr(Laskar1996).TheresultsofLaskar'ssecularperturbationtheoryshouldbeconfirmedandinvestigatedbyfullynumericalintegrations.

    Inthispaperwepresentpreliminaryresultsofsixlong-termnumericalintegrationsonallnineplanetaryorbits,coveringaspanofseveral109yr,andoftwootherintegrationscoveringaspanof±5×1010yr.Thetotalelapsedtimeforallintegrationsismorethan5yr,usingseveraldedicatedPCsandworkstations.Oneofthefundamentalconclusionsofourlong-termintegrationsisthatSolarsystemplanetarymotionseemstobestableintermsoftheHillstabilitymentionedabove,atleastoveratime-spanof±4Gyr.Actually,inournumericalintegrationsthesystemwasfarmorestablethanwhatisdefinedbytheHillstabilitycriterion:notonlydidnocloseencounterhappenduringtheintegrationperiod,butalsoalltheplanetaryorbitalelementshavebeenconfinedinanarrowregionbothintimeandfrequencydomain,thoughpl

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