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《死在火星上》

对火星轨道变化问题的最后解释
alintegrations,especiallyasameasureofthepositionalerrorofplanets,i.e.theerrorinplanetarylongitudes.Toestimatethenumericalerrorintheplanetarylongitudes,weperformedthefollowingprocedures.Wecomparedtheresultofourmainlong-termintegrationswithsometestintegrations,whichspanmuchshorterperiodsbutwithmuchhigheraccuracythanthemainintegrations.Forthispurpose,weperformedamuchmoreaccurateintegrationwithastepsizeof0.125d(1/64ofthemainintegrations)spanning3×105yr,startingwiththesameinitialconditionsasintheN?1integration.Weconsiderthatthistestintegrationprovidesuswitha‘pseudo-true’solutionofplanetaryorbitalevolution.Next,wecomparethetestintegrationwiththemainintegration,N?1.Fortheperiodof3×105yr,weseeadifferenceinmeananomaliesoftheEarthbetweenthetwointegrationsof~0.52°(inthecaseoftheN?1integration).Thisdifferencecanbeextrapolatedtothevalue~8700°,about25rotationsofEarthafter5Gyr,sincetheerroroflongitudesincreaseslinearlywithtimeinthesymplecticmap.Similarly,thelongitudeerrorofPlutocanbeestimatedas~12°.ThisvalueforPlutoismuchbetterthantheresultinKinoshita&Nakai(1996)wherethedifferenceisestimatedas~60°.

    3Numericalresults–I.Glanceattherawdata

    Inthissectionwebrieflyreviewthelong-termstabilityofplanetaryorbitalmotionthroughsomesnapshotsofrawnumericaldata.Theorbitalmotionofplanetsindicateslong-termstabilityinallofournumericalintegrations:noorbitalcrossingsnorcloseencountersbetweenanypairofplanetstookplace.

    3.1Generaldescriptionofthestabilityofplanetaryorbits

    First

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